New Ford F-150 trucks go through the assembly line at the Ford Dearborn Plant on April 11, 2024 in Dearborn, Michigan.
Bill Pugliano | Getty Images
DETROIT — The automotive industry has become a crucial topic during the 2024 presidential election as Michigan — home of the Motor City and 1.1 million automotive jobs — remains a critical swing state.
Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump, and their running mates and supporters have made Michigan a second home in recent weeks as the campaigns attempt to win over undecided voters in the Great Lakes State.
Since 2008, whichever candidate has won the state has moved into the White House, including Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020.
“Michigan’s 16 electoral votes have helped thrust Autos into the debate. Between Trump’s hyperactive and contradictory statements and Harris’ quieter views lay deep differences but also convergence,” Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois wrote in an investor note Monday.
While major automakers and suppliers have shied away from publicly endorsing either presidential candidate, executives and lobbyists from several companies spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to discuss how they’re preparing for each candidate, as well as a likely divided Congress.
Electric vehicles, trade, tariffs, China, emissions regulations and labor are among the top issues automakers are monitoring, according to industry executives and policy experts.
union President Shawn Fain who has been a combative foe to automakers, is concerning to some.
US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris greets union workers as she tours an International Union of Painters and Allied Trades training facility in Macomb, Michigan, on October 28, 2024.
Drew Angerer | AFP | Getty Images
If Trump wins reelection, automotive industry officials largely expect that he’ll return to policies and actions from his first presidential term, but those stances could be potentially more aggressive than they were before.
If he’s in office, insiders expect he would roll back or eliminate tightening federal emissions and fuel economy like he did during his first term; renew a battle between California and other states that set their own standards; and potentially enact funding changes to the Biden administration’s key Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 legislation.
Officials said it would be difficult for Trump to completely gut the IRA, but he could defund or limit EV subsidies through executive orders or other policy actions.
Automakers, suppliers and other auto-related companies are preparing for both outcomes as well as a split in Congress, insiders said.
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks as he visits a campaign office in Hamtramck, Michigan, U.S. October 18, 2024.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
“There’s no perfect scenario. Both candidates offer some opportunities and challenges,” said a leading lobbyist and public policy expert for a major automaker. “Everyone in our business has to look at the gamut of scenarios.”
Some Wall Street analysts speculate legacy automakers — specifically the “Detroit” companies General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis — would benefit most with Trump and Republican control of Congress.
EV startups such as Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group would benefit more with a Democratic win, largely due to expected plans involving EVs and fuel economy requirements. That’s despite Tesla CEO Elon Musk‘s continued support for Trump.
“Advanced Clean Cars II” regulations of 2022 call for 35% of 2026 model year vehicles, which will begin to be introduced next year, to be zero-emission vehicles. Battery-electric, fuel cell and, to an extent, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles qualify as zero emission.
The California Air Resources Board reports 12 states and Washington, D.C., have adopted the rules; however, roughly half have them starting for the 2027 model year. They are part of CARB’s Advanced Clean Cars regulations that include mandating 100% of new vehicle sales be zero-emission models by 2035.
