NEW DELHI: The India-Australia Test series stands at a tense crossroads following the rain-affected draw in the third Test in Brisbane.
With the five-match series level at 1-1, the remaining games in Melbourne and Sydney will be decisive, not just for the series outcome but also for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final qualification scenarios.
Scenario 1: Series Ends 2-2
- If the series ends in a 2-2 draw, India will conclude the WTC cycle with a percentage points tally (PCT) of 55.26%. To qualify for the WTC Final under this scenario, India would rely on other results:
- Australia must lose their series against Sri Lanka by at least a 1-0 margin.
- Alternatively, South Africa must suffer a 2-0 defeat in their series against Pakistan.
Scenario 2: Series Ends 1-1
- A 1-1 draw in the India-Australia series will reduce India’s PCT to 53.51%, making qualification trickier. Under this outcome:
- South Africa must lose both matches of their series against Pakistan (2-0).
- Or, Australia must either lose 1-0 to Sri Lanka or draw their series 0-0.
- In the event of a 0-0 draw between Australia and Sri Lanka, India would be tied with Australia at 53.51% but would edge ahead due to having more series wins in the WTC cycle (three versus two).
- However, a 2-0 win for Sri Lanka over Australia would eliminate India from contention as Sri Lanka’s PCT would surpass India’s.
India’s performance in the remaining Tests will play a pivotal role, but qualification hinges heavily on external results.
Consistency in batting and bowling, especially addressing middle-order collapses and over-reliance on Jasprit Bumrah, is crucial.
Meanwhile, favourable weather and conditions during other teams’ fixtures could also shape the race to the WTC Final.