A “location closed” sign hangs in the window of a closed Red Lobster restaurant in Torrance, California on May 14, 2024.
Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images
A rocky year for restaurants separated the industry’s biggest chains into winners and losers, as eateries competed for a smaller pool of customers who have grown more discerning about how they spend their dollars.
“I’ve been eating out less this year – it tastes just as good, and it’s way cheaper,” said Jennifer Jennings, who works in sales in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Prices for food away from home had risen 3.6% over the last 12 months as of November, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. Grocery prices climbed just 1.6% during the same time, making cooking at home more attractive than dining out.
In response, many consumers have cut their restaurant spending, leading to slower sales and greater competition. The value wars reignited this summer. Chains took aim at their rivals in marketing and social media posts. And restaurants ramped up innovation, hoping that new menu items could boost sluggish traffic trends.
“I think the common thread behind everything right now is that the chains that are winning aren’t standing still. They’re doing something innovative, whether that’s new menu items … maybe that’s a marketing innovation … maybe it’s just hyper-emphasizing value,” said RJ Hottovy, head of analytical research for Placer.ai.
The year started off slow, with declining year-over-year traffic in January and February, before visits picked up again in March, according to industry tracker Black Box Intelligence. But eateries struggled again over the summer as consumers tightened their belts. Even a slew of value meals that promised cheap burgers and fries couldn’t stem the tide.
As traffic has fallen, bankruptcy filings have soared. Twenty-six bars and restaurants have filed for Chapter 11 this year, just one shy of tripling 2020’s total during the pandemic, according to the Debtwire Restructuring Database. This year’s filers included big names like Red Lobster and TGI Fridays.
While traffic has improved into the fourth quarter, some industry experts say it’s too early to predict a full recovery. A Numerator survey of more than 2,000 consumers found that the majority — across all income groups — plan to maintain their current spending levels at limited-service restaurants in the coming months.
But the chains that are already winning have seen their gains grow in the fourth quarter, further fueling their success.
Here are the winners and losers of the restaurant industry in 2024:
new favorite word this year as they sought to reverse falling sales and appeal to inflation-weary consumers.
McDonald’s rang the alarm for the industry in late April, warning that consumers have become more “discriminating.” Three months later, the company’s second-quarter sales missed estimates and foot traffic to its U.S. restaurants shrank. The burger giant responded by rolling out a $5 combo meal, and many of its rivals followed suit with their own discounts and deals.
Traffic tied to value menu deals climbed 9% through October compared with the year-ago period, according to Circana data.
But value meals alone won’t save the industry.
For one, the lift from the deals isn’t enough to offset overall traffic declines, according to David Portalatin, Circana senior vice president and industry advisor for food and food service.
Plus, “value” has come to mean more than just the price tag. It also includes the experience and quality.
“For the low-income consumer, it’s the dollar amount that matters. For everybody else, it’s value. Even if you have money, you’re noticing things are more expensive, and you’re going to be more selective,” Michael Zuccaro, Moody’s Ratings vice president of corporate finance, told CNBC.
Wingstop.
Chicken prices have stayed relatively stable this year, while beef prices have climbed. Poultry also benefits because some consumers consider it a more healthy option than red meat, even when the chicken is breaded and fried.
Chicken has been gaining market share from beef since the chicken sandwich wars of 2019, and restaurants have been leaning into the shift in consumer behavior. McDonald’s, for example, recently added the Chicken Big Mac to its U.S. menu permanently.
Upstarts like Raising Cane’s have also been making a splash. The privately held chain, known for its chicken tenders, is the fourth-largest chicken chain in the U.S., with a market share of 7.8%, according to Barclays. The chain could soon overtake KFC, the rare chicken chain that’s struggled to resonate with U.S. consumers this year.
KFC, which is owned by Yum Brands, has fallen behind in recent years as competition has intensified. Rivals like Chick-fil-A and Popeyes have stolen market share with buzzy menu items and the consumer shift toward boneless chicken.
