The 2024 Jharkhand Assembly election result marked a pivotal moment in the State’s political landscape. Jharkhand has emerged from a period of intense political turmoil: between 2009 and 2013, President’s Rule was imposed three times, and no Chief Minister of the State could finish his five-year tenure except Raghubar Das (2014-19). Since the inception of the State, seven different Chief Ministers had taken oath 12 times just before this election. No party or alliance could retain power for long. And so, when the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), in alliance with the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation [CPI(M-L)], under the INDIA bloc, achieved a significant victory, it ushered in the hope of a stable government. The INDIA bloc secured a larger mandate than in previous Assembly elections, clinching 56 out of the 81 Assembly seats in the State.
The Assembly election result completely overturned the Lok Sabha outcome: while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) were leading in 50 out of 81 Assembly segments, the INDIA bloc was leading in only 29. This victory reflects the evolving political consciousness of Jharkhand’s electorate. It also proves the effectiveness of targeted, grassroots-level strategies over nationalised, polarising campaigns.
This article delves into the key factors behind the INDIA bloc’s triumph, analysing voter behaviour, coalition strategies, and the sociopolitical narratives that shaped the outcome.
The success of the INDIA bloc in Jharkhand can be attributed to a meticulously crafted coalition that united diverse voter groups under a cohesive and inclusive platform. Each constituent party contributed strategically to the alliance’s victory. The JMM emerged as the linchpin of the coalition, leveraging its strong tribal identity and Hemant Soren’s charismatic leadership, to secure overwhelming support from tribal communities. The JMM’s grassroots-driven welfare initiatives resonated deeply with women voters, leading to their significant turnout in favour of the bloc. The strong tribal support base for the JMM helped them win 27 out of 28 reserved tribal seats, showcasing its dominant position in these constituencies.
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The one ST reserved seat won by the BJP was that of Champai Soren, who was the State’s Chief Minister and a JMM party member until a few months back.
The role of coalition politics
A well-calibrated and inclusive alliance not only represented the intricate social fabric of Jharkhand but also fostered a sense of shared purpose and unity. The INDIA bloc resonated with voters, presenting itself as a coalition that stood for both regional pride and collective progress. This strategy proved instrumental in its resounding victory.
The Congress, despite some losses in key urban constituencies such as Jharia and Jamshedpur West, managed to retain its influence by securing 16 seats. This reinforced the alliance’s appeal among general category voters and other marginalised groups, ensuring a broad-based electoral presence. Similarly, the RJD added a critical layer to the coalition’s voter base by performing strongly in OBC-dominated regions, winning four out of the six seats it contested. This strengthened the bloc’s hold over a significant demographic group.
Smaller parties and independents, such as the CPI(M-L), played an essential role in further consolidating the alliance. By uniting diverse sections of the electorate, these parties countered the BJP’s attempts to fragment the voter base. Their inclusion ensured that the coalition reached a wide spectrum of voters across various communities and ideological lines.
Localism vs nationalism
At the heart of the JMM-led coalition’s success was its ability to connect deeply with people’s concerns, aspirations, and identities. By focussing on issues of land, forests, water, and livelihoods, the JMM effectively countered the BJP’s emphasis on nationalistic agendas, such as the Ram Temple and Article 370. While these issues might appeal to a broader audience in other parts of India, they failed to address the pressing challenges faced by Jharkhand’s predominantly tribal and rural population.
Jharkhand Governor Santosh Gangwar and Chief Minister Hemant Soren with JMM leader Kalpana Soren and newly sworn-in state cabinet ministers pose for a group photograph during a ceremony at Raj Bhavan, in Ranchi, on December 5
| Photo Credit:
PTI
The BJP, on the other hand, based its campaign on the theme of “roti, maati, beti” (bread, land, and daughters), alluding to the protection of livelihoods, safeguarding tribal lands, and ensuring the safety of daughters from perceived external threats such as Bangladeshi “infiltrators”. However, this narrative failed to win over voters as it relied heavily on fear-based rhetoric, overlooking real local issues such as unemployment, displacement, and environmental degradation caused by industrial policies.
An analysis of the election results reveals that this strategy completely collapsed in the Santhal Pargana region, for instance, where the BJP failed to win even a single seat. However, the party saw some gains in the North Chotanagpur region, securing 14 out of 25 seats with its allies.
Region-wise vote share
An analysis of a region-wise vote share reveals that it was just the North Chotanagpur region where the NDA gained from the previous Assembly election (see chart 1). North Chotanagpur and Palamu are the two regions where the NDA used to be a dominant electoral player. In the Santhal Pargana region, where the NDA tried to counter the INDIA bloc (through the issue of the infiltration of Bangladeshi migrants), the alliance failed miserably. In this region, the INDIA alliance had a 14 percent vote share lead over NDA, which is the highest ever in any region.
In contrast, the JMM underscored the BJP’s perceived neglect of tribal interests, accusing the party of prioritising corporate agendas over the welfare of local communities. Hemant Soren positioned himself as the protector of Jharkhand’s distinct identity, offering a vision of governance that focussed on local issues. This helped the INDIA bloc to gain the vote in every region of the state (see chart 2).
The JMM’s campaign also drew strength from its emphasis on Jharkhand’s rich cultural heritage and traditions. By highlighting the environmental damage and displacement caused by large-scale mining and industrial projects, the JMM portrayed itself as a defender of the State’s resources and cultural integrity. This narrative resonated strongly with tribal and rural voters who felt threatened by the BJP’s pro-industry policies.
The impact of the JMM’s welfare schemes and emotional appeal reverberated throughout Jharkhand. A post-election survey undertaken by the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies (DALES) revealed that the poor sections of society voted for the INDIA bloc, and only among the wealthy did the NDA have a decisive edge (see chart 3).
BJP’s missteps
Despite securing a 33.2 per cent vote share, the BJP won only 21 seats in Jharkhand, reflecting its inability to effectively convert votes into victories. One of the key reasons for this underperformance was the strained alliance with its coalition partner, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), which saw its vote share plummet from 8 per cent to just 3.54 per cent. This sharp decline weakened the BJP’s ability to consolidate support in critical constituencies.
In addition, BJP’s polarising rhetoric around issues such as Bangladeshi infiltration gained limited traction, resonating only in certain districts where such concerns were more pronounced. However, this approach failed to unify the broader electorate, which was more focused on immediate and pressing local issues.
The Santhal Pargana region, which has a higher share of Muslims than other regions, was expected to respond more to the BJP’s campaign of the infiltration issue; but the NDA could not win even a single Assembly seat here.
The Kurmi reservation issue further compounded the BJP’s challenges. The party underestimated the significance of this demand, which the JMM championed effectively. This misstep alienated the Kurmi community, costing the BJP crucial votes in constituencies with a substantial Kurmi population.
The rise of Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha
A new entrant in Jharkhand’s political landscape, the Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM), made an impressive debut, emerging as the fourth-largest vote-getter. Led by Jairam Mahato, the party drew substantial support from the Kurmi community, significantly altering traditional vote bases.
JLKM’s rise not only weakened the AJSU but also dented the BJP’s prospects in at least 10 constituencies by splitting the Kurmi-dominated vote. Mahato’s campaign was focussed on the 1932 Khatiyan Bill, along with promises to improve basic education and healthcare. The 1932 Khatiyan Bill deals with Jharkhand identity, which should be based on land records of 1932 and be the criteria to verify the State’s domicile and employment policy. The DALES survey data suggests that among Kurmis, nearly one-third supported Mahato’s party. When asked if they supported JLKM because of Mahato’s entry into politics, 58 per cent of Kurmis said “yes”.
The post-election data suggests that Kurmis, who have a significant vote share in the State and have been a traditional vote bank of the BJP and the AJSU, shifted their support base towards the JLKM this time. This reshaped the political dynamics of Jharkhand, creating new fault lines (see table below).
Soren’s leadership and welfare schemes
A pivotal factor in the JMM’s success was Hemant Soren’s strong pro-incumbency appeal. Since the inception of Jharkhand, no incumbent has been able to retain power in the State. Soren broke this trend. He not only came back to power but did so with a huge victory. Soren benefitted from the tribal sentiments (as he was sent to jail) and his government’s focus on welfare-oriented governance. Key initiatives such as the Maiya Samman Yojana and the promise of 200 units of free electricity, among other initiatives, played a central role in building his appeal. The Maiya Samman Yojana, which provided financial aid to women, resonated deeply with female voters, offering them both economic support and social empowerment. The direct benefits, especially to women, were crucial in swaying their votes and contributed significantly to the JMM’s victory.
Similarly, the provision of up to 200 units of free electricity for domestic use helped ease the financial burden on rural households. These initiatives not only improved the quality of life for beneficiaries but also fostered trust and goodwill toward the government.
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As a Chief Minister of the State, the popularity of Soren was much higher than that of any of his competitors. His rivals were left far behind in terms of offering a popular leader in the State. In the DALES survey, when asked who will become the next Chief Minister, nearly half of respondents (46 per cent) answered “Soren”. His nearest contender was Babu Lal Marandi (with the support of 18 per cent of respondents), followed by Champai Soren (see chart below).
As Jharkhand moves forward under the renewed mandate of the INDIA bloc, the challenge will be to translate electoral success to sustained progress and equitable development for all its people. The 2024 election has shown that Jharkhand’s electorate is not only aware of its needs but also capable of holding its leaders accountable—an encouraging sign for the future of democracy in the State.
Marking the INDIA bloc’s first significant victory since the Lok Sabha election, Jharkhand’s results highlight the bloc’s potential to reshape India’s political power dynamics. This victory signals a shift towards more people-centric governance and sets the stage for regional forces to play a pivotal role in shaping national strategies, driving accountability, and fostering inclusive development.
Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies (DALES). Atul Kumar Pandey is an election researcher.