Thousands of people left Homs, Syria‘s third-largest city, after rebel forces captured two nearby towns on Friday. Online footage showed vehicles packed with evacuees leaving Homs, a city with a substantial Alawite population, who are considered Assad‘s core supporters.
The rebel forces faced no major resistance from the country’s military, according to pro-government media sources and an opposition war monitor. Earlier, the insurgents took control of Hama, the nation’s fourth-largest city, after government forces withdrew, stating they wanted to avoid urban warfare and protect civilians.
The opposition forces, with HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) at the forefront, have declared their intention to advance towards Homs and Damascus, the capital where Assad holds power.
Homs which insurgents partially controlled until 2014, occupies a crucial junction between Damascus and the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus, where Assad maintains strong support.
It shares borders with Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan. The city also houses one of Syria’s two government-operated oil refineries.
Opposition activists also reported that protesters overtook security posts and army positions in Sweida province in the south. Additionally, US-supported Kurdish forces, who control eastern and northeastern regions, began moving into government-controlled areas.
Syria’s Assad faces setback
The insurgents have emerged from their long-held position in Syria’s northwest, successfully capturing Aleppo and continuing their advance while government forces retreat.
The offensive involves HTS and the Syrian National Army, a coalition of Turkish-backed Syrian militias. Despite Turkey’s official denial of involvement, analysts suggest the operation would have required Turkish approval. The advancement has altered the power dynamics in the nearly 14-year conflict.
“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it,” HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani told CNN in an interview Thursday from Syria. “But the truth remains, this regime is dead.” He said that Assad’s government survives solely through Russian and Iranian support.
Russia’s capacity to assist Assad remains uncertain, given its ongoing involvement in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated plans to address Syrian developments with Turkish and Iranian counterparts at a Friday meeting in Doha.
Lavrov, during his conversation with Tucker Carlson, discussed international support for the insurgents, stating he would explore ways “to cut the channels of financing and arming them.” Simultaneously, the Russian embassy in Syria advised its citizens about commercial flight options for departure, citing the complex military-political circumstances.
A meeting of foreign ministers from Iran, Iraq and Syria occurred Friday in Baghdad to discuss the situation. Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh expressed concerns that current developments could present “a serious threat to the security of the region as a whole.”
Opposition forces advance in multiple Regions
Rebel fighters on Friday captured Rastan and Talbiseh in central Syria, positioning themselves just 5 kilometres from Homs, according to reports from the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition monitoring group.
“The battle of Homs is the mother of all battles and will decide who will rule Syria,” said Rami Abdurrahman, the Observatory’s chief.
Pro-government radio station Sham FM reported uncontested entry of insurgents into Rastan and Talbiseh. The Syrian military remained silent on these developments.
Whilst the Observatory reported Syrian troops withdrawing from Homs, the military contested this through state news agency SANA, asserting their reinforced positions and readiness to counter attacks.
In the eastern region, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported advancing into the government-controlled western half of Deir el-Zour without encountering resistance. The city had previously been divided between government forces west of the Euphrates River and SDF forces to the east.
The SDF additionally reported securing additional sections of the Iraqi border, advancing towards the government-held Boukamal crossing. This crossing holds strategic importance as a vital corridor to Iran, facilitating movement for Iran-supported fighters, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Simultaneously, opposition activists reported insurgents capturing Syria’s only crossing with Jordan, prompting Jordan to close its side. Lebanon followed suit, shutting all but one border crossing with Syria.
Syria’s economic situation has deteriorated further amidst the opposition offensive. The American dollar traded at approximately 18,000 Syrian pounds in the parallel market on Friday, representing a 25% decrease from the previous week. For context, when the Syrian conflict began in March 2011, one dollar equated to 47 pounds.
The declining value severely impacts Syrians’ ability to purchase goods, whilst the United Nations reports that poverty affects 90% of the population.
Years of conflict, Western-imposed sanctions, widespread corruption and Lebanon’s financial crisis have severely impacted Syria’s economy, with Lebanon serving as Syria’s primary connection to international markets.
According to reports from Damascus residents speaking to The Associated Press, people are hastily purchasing food supplies, anticipating further deterioration.
The deteriorating economic situation potentially weakens Syria’s military capabilities, as soldiers’ wages lose value whilst opposition forces maintain strong financial resources.
The Syrian military appears to lack a coordinated response to opposition advances. SANA quoted an unidentified military official stating that Syrian and Russian air forces were conducting strikes against insurgents in Hama province, resulting in numerous casualties.
In a televised announcement on Thursday evening, Syria’s defence minister stated that forces withdrew from Hama as “a temporary tactical measure” and promised to reclaim lost territories.
“We are in a good position on the ground,” stated Gen. Ali Mahmoud Abbas, indicating troops remained “at the gates of Hama.” His statement preceded further opposition advancement southward towards Homs.
He indicated that the insurgents, whom he referred to as “takfiri” or Muslim extremists, receive support from foreign nations. Whilst not explicitly naming them, he appeared to reference Turkey and the United States.