The 2024 byelections tell a tale of local might

Ruling parties across India, from Uttar Pradesh and Punjab in the north to Karnataka and Kerala in the south, found relief in Assembly byelection results across 48 seats in 14 States: Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala, Sikkim, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Meghalaya, and Uttarakhand.

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra won the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat in Kerala, vacated by Rahul Gandhi, with a landslide margin. The BJP claimed the other Lok Sabha seat of Nanded in Maharashtra, which fell vacant after the death of Congress MP Vasant Chavan.

In the Assembly contests, Uttar Pradesh led with nine seats, followed by Rajasthan with seven, West Bengal with six, and Assam with five. Punjab and Bihar had four seats each, Karnataka three, while Madhya Pradesh and Kerala had two each. Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, and Meghalaya each had one seat.

The Congress performed well in the south—Karnataka and Kerala—while the BJP staged a comeback in the north, winning most seats in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, and Gujarat. Regional parties held their ground, with the AAP securing Punjab and the Trinamool Congress holding on to West Bengal. The BJP’s victory in six out of nine seats in Uttar Pradesh and five out of seven in Rajasthan strengthened its position, complemented by its success in Maharashtra. However, its polarisation strategy failed in Jharkhand.

The biggest relief was for BJP’s Yogi Adityanth in Uttar Pradesh, where Assembly byelections were held for nine seats. The BJP, which had won only one of these nine seats in the 2022 State election, is slated to win at least six of them this time.

This victory marks a turnaround for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, whose leadership faced scrutiny after the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally in UP dropped to 33 seats in 2024 from 71 in 2014 and 62 in 2019. Adityanath had made these elections a matter of prestige, deploying 30 Ministers and 15 senior party leaders as cluster-wise caretakers across constituencies.

The results will likely silence his critics within the State unit and ease tensions with the central leadership. The Samajwadi Party, buoyed by winning 37 Lok Sabha seats, managed to salvage some pride by retaining the Karhal assembly seat vacated by Akhilesh Yadav after he became MP. Meanwhile, the BJP held onto its urban stronghold in Ghaziabad.

After the victory, Adityanath credited Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the success.

In neighbouring Uttarakhand, BJP Chief Minister Pushkar Dhami celebrated the Kedarnath Assembly victory, calling it a fitting response to those spreading “misleading politics in Baba Kedarnath’s sacred land”.

Kedarnath and Badrinath, two of the char dham (four holy abodes), hold central importance in Hindu pilgrimage. The BJP’s 2022 sweep of all 13 Garhwal Assembly seats excluded only Badrinath, which Congress later retained in a July 2024 byelection after its MLA defected to the BJP before the Lok Sabha election. The recent Kedarnath byelection, necessitated by the sitting BJP MLA’s death in July, saw Chief Minister Dhami and two former Chief Ministers supporting the BJP candidate’s nomination. Dhami pledged to oversee Kedarnath until the new MLA’s election.

In Bihar, the National Democratic Alliance’s sweep of all four seats dealt a blow to the RJD-Congress coalition. The BJP claimed Tarari in Bhojpur and Ramgarh, while the Janata Dal (United) won the RJD stronghold of Belaganj. The Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) leader Jitan Ram Manjhi’s daughter secured Imamganj.

The BJP’s victory in five of seven Assembly seats in Rajasthan adds four seats to its previous tally of one. Although the Congress retained Dausa, a stronghold of party heavyweight Sachin Pilot, the BJP’s dominance raises concerns for the faction-ridden Congress State unit. The Congress, which previously held four of these seats, lost three, squandering an opportunity for opposition unity in the Rajasthan byelections.

The Congress surprised observers with wins in Madhya Pradesh, where it had lost all 29 Lok Sabha seats recently. In Vijaypur, the Congress candidate Mukesh Malhotra defeated the BJP’s Ram Niwas Rawat, a veteran who had switched from the Congress before the Lok Sabha election. The BJP retained Budhni, which fell vacant after Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s election to Parliament.

In BJP-ruled Chhattisgarh, the party won Raipur by over 46,000 votes. The seat became vacant after the BJP veteran Brajmohan Agrawal moved to Parliament. Gujarat saw the BJP win the Vav Assembly seat by a narrow margin of 2,000 votes in what has been a party stronghold for decades.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress dominated the six Assembly constituencies. Beyond retaining its five seats from the 2021 Assembly election, Trinamool also captured Madarihat in north Bengal while increasing its vote share across all constituencies.

The Congress scored significant victories in Karnataka and Kerala. In Karnataka, the party won all three constituencies, retaining Sandur and wresting Shiggaon and Channapatna from the BJP and Janata Dal (Secular). Shiggaon and Channapatna carried special significance as former Chief Ministers Basavaraj Bommai and H.D. Kumaraswamy had vacated these seats after their election to Parliament.

In Kerala, the ruling Left Democratic Front found relief after winning one of three contested seats. The Congress-led United Democratic Front claimed the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat through Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s commanding victory and held the Palakkad Assembly seat with a slim margin. The CPI(M), undefeated in Chelakkara since 1996, kept its stronghold, averting embarrassment for the ruling coalition. The BJP, despite controlling the Palakkad municipality, fell short as in 2021.

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The seats became vacant after sitting members departed, with Rahul Gandhi choosing to retain Rae Bareli over Wayanad after winning both Lok Sabha seats.

In Punjab, the AAP’s performance reversed recent Lok Sabha trends, with the ruling party taking three seats from Congress while losing one. This success bolstered Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s government, which faced criticism over unfulfilled 2022 campaign promises. AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal framed the Punjab victory as a “semi-final” before Delhi’s Assembly election scheduled for early 2025.

The National People’s Party retained the Gambegre Assembly seat in Meghalaya, while in Assam, the NDA secured all five seats, with the BJP winning three. The Congress faced disappointment in Samaguri, where MLA Rakibul Hussain’s son failed to retain his father’s seat after the latter’s move to Parliament.

In Sikkim, Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) candidates Aditya Golay and Satish Chandra Rai won unopposed.

Here’s a detailed look at the States.

West Bengal: A Trinamool sweep

The Trinamool Congress’s sweep in the byelections to six Assembly constituencies—Medinipur, Taldangra, Naihati, Haroa, Sitai, and Madarihat—indicates that the prolonged protests over the rape and murder of an on-duty doctor at Kolkata’s R.G. Kar Hospital in August this year had no electoral impact in West Bengal. The ruling party not only increased its winning margins in every constituency it held but also captured one of the BJP’s strongholds in north Bengal.

Apart from Madarihat in north Bengal, the Trinamool had won all five seats in the 2021 Assembly election. This time, it retained them while increasing its vote share across constituencies. In Medinipur, Trinamool’s margin rose from 24,397 votes in 2021 to 33,996. In Taldangra, a slender margin of 12,377 votes in 2021 expanded to over 34,000. Naihati’s margin grew from 18,855 to 49,277 votes. In Sitai, where Trinamool barely won with 10,112 votes in 2021, it secured a massive lead of 1,30,636 votes in 2024. Haroa’s margin increased from 80,179 to 1,31,388 votes.

The party’s biggest triumph came at Madarihat in Jalpaiguri district—a seat it had never won before. Despite faction feuds weakening the BJP in their stronghold, observers had expected a close contest. The BJP’s Manoj Tigga, who had won the seat twice, last securing it with 29,685 votes in 2021, vacated it to contest successfully for the Alipurduar Lok Sabha seat. His replacement, Rahul Lokar, lost to the Trinamool’s Jayprakash Toppo by 28,168 votes. The BJP’s former Alipurduar MP John Barla blamed party “arrogance” for the loss. “The leaders must know ground reality. They cannot simply sit in Kolkata and make decisions,” he said, criticising Tigga by adding, “It (the BJP’s organisation) has become a one-man party here.”

Despite ongoing protests over the R.G. Kar case, this outcome was not surprising. Opposition parties, including the BJP, lacked the organisational strength to channel public anger into electoral gains. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee celebrated on social media: “The people are our support. We are common people; that is our identity. We are not zamindars; we are the security guards of the people.” These victories have reinforced Trinamool’s political dominance in Bengal.

Karnataka: Congress shines

The Congress government in Karnataka received a significant boost, scoring a hat-trick in byelections across three constituencies. Both captured seats, Shiggaon and Channapatna, carried special weight, having been previously held by former Chief Ministers Basavaraj Bommai and H.D. Kumaraswamy, who had vacated them after winning Lok Sabha seats. In Shiggaon, Congress candidate Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan defeated Bommai’s son Bharath, while in Channapatna, C.P. Yogeshwar bested Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil.

Yogeshwar’s victory in Channapatna particularly stings Kumaraswamy, as the Union Minister had campaigned intensively in this Vokkaliga-dominated constituency. Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar and his brother D.K. Suresh had made the contest a prestige battle following Suresh’s parliamentary defeat to Kumaraswamy’s brother-in-law, Dr C.N. Manjunath. The brothers, who orchestrated Yogeshwar’s defection to the Congress, have now gained the upper hand in their struggle with Kumaraswamy for Vokkaliga leadership.

The BJP’s campaign strategy of highlighting district Waqf Board notices to farmers failed to polarise voters. Instead, the Congress benefitted from successfully implementing its five guarantees, while allegations against Chief Minister Siddaramaiah in the Mysore Urban Development Authority (MUDA) case gained little traction.

According to political analyst A. Narayana of Azim Premji University, the byelection marked the first test for the BJP-JD(S) alliance at the State level, revealing its weakness. “The results are also a setback to the State president of the BJP, B.Y. Vijayendra, and his father, former CM B. S. Yediyurappa,” amid unprecedented internal dissent against Vijayendra. For the Congress, both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar emerge stronger—Siddaramaiah weathering the MUDA case allegations and Shivakumar prevailing in his direct contest with the Deve Gowda family, he noted.

Kerala: Relief for LDF

The ruling Left Democratic Front in Kerala found relief after winning one of three contested seats in the byelection. The CPI(M), which heads the Left Democratic Front and has held Chelakkara since 1996, kept its stronghold, sparing the ruling coalition embarrassment.

The byelections were triggered by sitting members’ resignations. In the 2021 Assembly election, the Congress’ Shafi Parambil had won Palakkad by fewer than 5,000 votes against the BJP’s E. Sreedharan, known for developing India’s metro systems. The 2024 contest again pitted the Congress (Rahul Mamkootathil) against the BJP (C. Krishnakumar). The CPI(M) backed independent candidate P. Sarin, a Congress defector who was denied the party ticket, but it made little impact. In Chelakkara, former CPI(M) MLA U.R. Pradeep maintained the party’s traditional stronghold despite a challenge from former Congress MP Ramya Haridas, who campaigned on an anti-incumbency sentiment.

Punjab: AAP bounces back

The Assembly byelection results in Punjab have reversed recent Lok Sabha trends, with the ruling Aam Aadmi Party claiming three Congress seats while losing one to the opposition.

The AAP secured Chabbewal, Gidderbaha, and Dera Baba Nanak—all previously held by the Congress—but lost Barnala. This success bolsters the Bhagwant Mann government, which faced scrutiny over unfulfilled promises from its 2022 Assembly campaign. The victory also strengthens the AAP’s position before Delhi’s Assembly election, helping counter corruption allegations against its leadership.

For the Congress, the results mark a sharp decline from its recent Lok Sabha performance, where it won seven of the State’s 13 seats. That victory had suggested recovery from the AAP’s crushing defeat of the Congress in the 2022 Assembly election. The AAP had won three Lok Sabha seats, with independents claiming two.

The Congress faced particular embarrassment as two prominent leaders-turned-MPs failed to secure victories for their spouses. State Congress president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring’s wife Amrita lost Gidderbaha to the AAP’s Hardeep Singh Dimpy Dhillon by nearly 22,000 votes. Similarly, senior leader Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa’s wife Jatinder Kaur lost Dera Baba Nanak to AAP’s Gurdeep Singh Randhawa by 5,699 votes.

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In Chabbewal, the AAP’s Ishank Kumar defeated the Congress’ Ranjit Kumar by over 28,000 votes. The Congress managed to win Barnala—previously held by AAP’s Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer, now an MP—where Kuldeep Singh Dhillon narrowly beat the AAP’s Harinder Singh Dhaliwal by 2,157 votes.

A key takeaway from the byelections is the emergence of the BJP as a third player in the State’s politics. The BJP was in the third spot in the four seats, knocking the Shiromani Akali Dal off the podium.

Rajasthan: Congress alliance crumbles

Despite the INDIA bloc’s success in Jharkhand, Rajasthan’s byelection results exposed deep rifts within the coalition. The Congress, which previously held four of the seven seats, lost three while barely retaining Dausa, its traditional stronghold. This decline came just eight months after a successful electoral understanding between Congress, the CPI(M), the Rashtriya Lok Tantrik Party (RLTP), and the Bharatiya Adivasi Party (BAP) had prevented the BJP from sweeping all 25 parliamentary seats in 2024. The alliance fractured amid criticism that the Congress had given too much ground to its partners in the Lok Sabha election.

The byelections suffered from a leadership vacuum as key Rajasthan Congress leaders Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot served as observers in Maharashtra, leaving Pradesh Congress Chief Govind Singh Dotasra in charge. The Congress’ decision to contest all seven seats, ignoring its allies RLTP and BAP, proved costly. The RLTP lost Khinwsar and the BAP lost Chorasi—both considered certain victories for either party—with the Congress finishing third in both constituencies. The BJP claimed both Jhunjhunu and Ramgarh, traditional Congress strongholds, while also winning Salumber’s reserved seat by narrowly defeating the BAP’s Jitesh Katara.

The Jhunjhunu loss ended two decades of Congress control, previously held by veteran Sisram Ola, a former Union Minister, and then his son Brajendra Ola. After Brajendra’s election to Parliament necessitated a byelection, the party’s decision to field his son Amit Ola alienated workers already frustrated with dynastic politics. Similarly in Ramgarh, the BJP decisively defeated Aryan Zubair, who had inherited the ticket from his father Zubair Khan after the sitting MLA’s death.

(Reporting by Anand Mishra in Jharkhand, Suhrid Sankar Chattopadhyay in West Bengal, Soni Mishra in Punjab, R.K. Radhakrishnan in Kerala, T.K. Rajalakshmi in Rajasthan, and Vikhar Ahmed Sayeed in Karnataka)