What began as a neck-and-neck battle turned into a one-sided affair in Maharashtra’s high-stakes Assembly election. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance [which also includes the Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and other smaller parties) won or were leading in 231 seats out of 288 (at the time of writing), while the opposition alliance managed only 49. The BJP crossed the three-digit mark on its own for the third consecutive Assembly election. Both the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP performed well, overcoming their Lok Sabha election setbacks.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi suffered an unexpectedly severe defeat, raising questions about the survival of both Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) and NCP (Sharad Pawar). The Congress witnessed its worst performance in history. These results promise to reshape State politics, from governance to Maharashtra’s sociopolitical trajectory.
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“This is Mahayuti’s landslide victory. Everyone wrote us off after the Lok Sabha election but our work has paid off. People voted for development and schemes like Ladki Bahin,” said Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. The Ladki Bahin scheme emerged as a game-changer. Launched in August 2024, it reached 2.34 crore women who received Rs.7,500 each over five months. In a State with 4.60 crore women voters, reaching half the electorate proved decisive. The State transferred Rs.17,000 crore directly to women beneficiaries.
Campaigns and schemes
Beyond Ladki Bahin, other welfare measures contributed to the victory: waiving farmers’ electricity bills (costing Rs.15,000 crore), providing Rs.2,500 crore in minimum support price subsidies to soybean and cotton farmers, and implementing similar schemes.
The Mahayuti’s campaign themes of “Ek Hai Toh Safe Hai” and “Vote jehad” proved equally crucial. After the Lok Sabha results, the BJP leaders attributed MVA’s earlier success to Muslim voter consolidation. This narrative spread across the State. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s “Batenge To Katenge”and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Ek Hai Toh Safe Hai” slogans mobilised BJP supporters. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis posted on X: “Ek Hai To Safe Hai, Modi Hai To Mumkin Hai.” BJP leader Kirit Somaiya, who spearheaded the “Vote Jehad” campaign, called it “a victory of Dharma Yuddha over Vote Jehad”.
“This could mark a turning point in Maharashtra’s social discourse,” noted political analyst Padmabhushan Deshpande. Politicians previously invoked King Shahu, Mahatma Phule, and Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar to align with society’s progressive undertones. This victory, achieved through an openly communal campaign, could transform Maharashtra. Just as Madhya Pradesh became a laboratory for Hindutva politics, Maharashtra might follow suit.”
Prime Minister Modi during a public meeting for the Lok Sabha election, in Pune with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Ministers Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar in April 2024. The Ladki Bahin scheme, which provided Rs.7,500 to 2.34 crore women, emerged as a game-changer while the opposition MVA alliance suffered its worst defeat ever.
| Photo Credit:
ANI
The Maratha reservation protest emerged as another crucial factor in the electoral discourse. While this issue cost Mahayuti 12 constituencies in the Lok Sabha election, and despite Maratha protest leader Manoj Jarange-Patil’s call to vote against the alliance, the BJP successfully countered it by mobilising non-Maratha Hindu voters. The party deployed what Frontline termed the “Ma-Dha-Va formula”—consolidating Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari communities.
The Mahayuti’s victory raises fresh questions about Maharashtra’s political future. Having campaigned aggressively as “BJP-led Mahayuti”, the party now faces a crucial decision: installing its own leader as Chief Minister or retaining Eknath Shinde. With local body elections approaching, including the prestigious Mumbai contest, the BJP might temporarily keep Shinde as Chief Minister. If the BJP claims the top post, Shinde’s political future—whether in Delhi or State politics—becomes critical for future alignments. Devendra Fadnavis maintains that there is no conflict, saying, “Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar, and BJP high command will decide the CM post unanimously.”
For the opposition, particularly Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) and NCP (Sharad Pawar), challenges lie in the days ahead. They face an existential crisis, struggling to keep their flock together against the BJP’s aggressive politics. The Congress must rebuild its organisation and nurture new leadership in Maharashtra. Beyond State politics, these results could weaken the INDIA bloc and undermine Congress’ key campaign issues like constitutional protection and caste census.
Beyond numbers
The MVA’s defeat runs deeper than numbers. Several prominent leaders lost their seats: Congress veteran Balasaheb Thorat, a nine-time contestant and chief ministerial aspirant; Ruturaj Patil, nephew of Congress strongman Satej Patil from Kolhapur South; former Health Minister Rajesh Tope in Ambad; and Dhiraj Deshmukh, son of late Vilasrao Deshmukh, in Latur Rural. However, Rohit Pawar from NCP (Sharad Pawar) won his seat in Karjat Jamkhed. Meanwhile, Mahayuti leaders scored significant victories: Eknath Shinde in Kopari Pachpakhadi, Devendra Fadnavis in Nagpur Southwest, Ajit Pawar in Baramati, and several others, including the BJP’s Sambhaji Nilangekar, Jaykumar Rawal, key Shinde Sena figures, and NCP leaders aligned with Ajit Pawar.
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The election results have created another predicament for MVA: the Leader of the Opposition post. Parliamentary rules require an opposition party to have at least 10 per cent of the house strength—28 seats in Maharashtra’s 288-Member Assembly—to claim this position. Though Shiv Sena (UBT) emerged as MVA’s largest party, it won only 20 seats. Consequently, the Assembly might function without a Leader of Opposition. Deputy Chief Minister Fadnavis’s statement (“We will respect the opposition despite its numbers”) suggests the ruling alliance is not inclined to make concessions on this issue.
Maharashtra’s politics since 2019 has been marked by unprecedented volatility and instability, with political discourse hitting new lows. The 2024 results, by delivering a clear majority to the Mahayuti, end speculation about horse-trading and weak government formation. This decisive mandate carries expectations: Mahayuti must now use its political capital to serve Maharashtra’s interests, the very reason voters entrusted them with power.