Officials from China have avoided direct comment on North Korea’s despatch of thousands of troops to Russia, where they might help in a conflict that all three countries see as a contest against overweening American might. China itself is a crucial if undeclared backer of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, providing technological support for Russia’s defence industries. But behind closed doors, Chinese officials may question North Korea’s move.
To celebrate their forging of diplomatic relations 75 years ago, China and North Korea describe 2024 as a “year of friendship”. China insists that their ties are “as close as lips and teeth”. But on Chinese social media—which are normally heavily censored to skew opinion in favour of authoritarian countries—some netizens with large followings have been wondering whether North Korea may have harmed China’s interests.
On October 24th, a day after America said there was evidence that North Korean troops were in Russia, a Chinese foreign-ministry spokesman said “China does not have information on that.” On Weibo, a microblogging site, a reporter for state media, Zhao Lingmin, told her more than 1m followers that this indicated China had not been informed in advance of North Korea’s action, “which is clearly a sign of disrespect”. Qiu Zhenhai, a well-known political commentator with nearly 2m followers on Weibo, went further. “So, who is the biggest direct victim in this situation? It’s China,” he said. He fretted about the possibility of Russia returning the favour by helping North Korea in a war on the Korean peninsula that could result in nuclear conflict on China’s doorstep.
Many analysts agree that China is peeved by North Korea’s apparent tilt towards Russia. Since last year the two countries’ leaders, Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin, have exchanged chummy visits. These have resulted not only in the deployment of North Korean troops (on October 28th NATO’s new chief, Mark Rutte, said they had been sent to the Kursk region of Russia, which Ukraine has invaded), but also massive shipments to Russia of North Korean shells and missiles. In return, Russia is providing North Korea with economic and military aid, Western officials believe. “The Chinese always like to say that they have no influence over North Korea, but they guard their influence,” says Victor Cha of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington. He says China has “lost control” there.
Chinese officials may fear that Mr Kim will become less reliant on their country, which has long been North Korea’s largest trading partner. Emboldened by Russia’s support, he may also become more provocative in his dealings with South Korea. China has more at stake than Russia in preserving stability on the Korean peninsula. A conflict there could have a big impact on Chinese cities close to the border. China, which has a defence treaty with North Korea, may even get dragged in. If things kicked off, China would want to keep American power at bay, as it did during the Korean war of 1950-53.
Kim Jong Un-interested
North Korea-watchers note signs that Mr Kim is cooling towards China. Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul says that North Korean media now publish far more articles about Russia than about China. In July North Korea did not send a senior official to a celebration by the Chinese embassy in Pyongyang of the anniversary of the China-North Korea treaty. Messages exchanged between the two countries to congratulate each other on 75 years of diplomatic ties have been shorter than in the past, some analysts observe.
Despite China’s concerns about Russia’s relationship with North Korea, it is pleased to see the West distracted, divided and fatigued by the war in Ukraine. China may even sense an opportunity. It may try to exploit Western hopes that it could help rein in North Korean support for Russia, says Seong-Hyon Lee of the Harvard University Asia Centre. “China will demand a price for that,” he says. But even if it is willing to try, China may find it hard to bend Mr Kim to its will.
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