Elections, hurricane damage and more: Here are four factors that will shape holiday shoppers' purchases

For retailers, cooler and wintery weather is always on the Christmas wish list.

Weather can tip shoppers into the holiday spirit and get them in the mood to buy thicker sweaters, coats and gifts, said Evan Gold, executive vice president for Planalytics, a Philadelphia-based company that advises retailers on weather-related inventory planning.

“There’s no external factor that influences consumers’ purchases as directly, frequently and immediately as the weather,” he said.

This year, the early fall got off to a rockier start. The now unofficial kickoff to the holiday shopping season marked by October sales events coincided with unseasonably warm temperatures in San Francisco and other parts of the country, and severe hurricanes that battered North Carolina and Florida. That makes shoppers less likely to want to buy sweaters, coats and artificial trees.

Yet the weather this year should eventually help retailers, Gold said, since November and December temperatures are expected to be colder than a year ago. He said the shift in weather, such as a dusting of snow or a cold snap, can help signal shoppers to get ready for the season.

Many families will just be trying to rebuild from hurricane damage rather than buying holiday gifts, which could redirect money to furniture, clothes or home repairs, Jack Kleinhenz, the NRF’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters.

“It’ll be just an adjustment in their budget in what they’ll be spending for, but it’s really too early to know the full impact on retail,” he said.

Home Depot expects that, too. It pulled holiday product out of 124 of its big-box stores to make room for items that hard-hit areas need, such as shingles and drywall, Allen said. Instead, he said, it plans to sell a more limited assortment in those stores of items such as wreaths and its top-selling trees.

“They’re trying to rebuild and recover their houses,” he said. “So obviously, they’re not going to go buy a nine-foot reindeer and put that out there.”

Thanks to the calendar, the holiday rush may be on overdrive.

Shoppers will have five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year compared with last year — which could dampen spending or potentially motivate time-pressured shoppers to seek out rush shipping, curbside pickup or other quicker options to get gifts.

The pressure will be on retailers to make the most of each day and to deliver on convenience, as shoppers race to get what they need and expect items to arrive within a few hours or at minimum, within a few days, said the NRF’s Shay.

“A shorter period does have consequences and implications and one of those, of course, is that the shipping season will be shorter,” he said.

On a recent store tour, Kohl’s Chief Marketing Officer Christie Raymond said the retailer expects it will have to work harder to woo customers, especially lower- and middle-income shoppers, who have felt pinched by the cumulative effect of inflation and crunched for time.

“We think they’re feeling more squeezed than last year,” Raymond said. And, she added, shoppers have also said they are “feeling time-squeezed.”

To appeal to those consumers, Kohl’s wants to have more of what they need, Chief Merchandising and Digital Officer Nick Jones said.

The retailer has bulked up its offering of gift items, added more party dresses and started to sell a wider range of decorations, including Christmas trees, lawn ornaments and wrapping paper.

“We want to be a holiday destination,” he said. “We haven’t got the food, but we’ve got everything else.”