Is Kejriwal’s exit as Delhi Chief Minister a masterstroke or blunder?

On September 17, Arvind Kejriwal resigned as Delhi Chief Minister for the second time, the first being just 49 days after taking office in 2013. A decade later, while the Aam Aadmi Party remains the ruling party in Delhi and several of its leaders, including Kejriwal, are out on bail, he has sought public validation of his “honest politics” in the upcoming Assembly election due in February.

Whether seen as astute politics or a gamble, Kejriwal has asked for an early election, without recommending dissolution of the Assembly, while paving the way for party leader Atishi to be the new Chief Minister. At stake are Kejriwal’s image as an “honest” politician, as he and his party emerged from the India Against Corruption movement in 2013, and AAP’s status as a national party. Political analysts believe that his resignation has come as a smart move against the BJP’s “unsuccessful” campaign to discredit AAP and poach its leaders.

A three-phase Assembly election is currently taking place in Jammu and Kashmir, while elections are expected soon in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand. Attempts to forge a pre-election alliance between the Congress and the AAP have collapsed due to disagreements on seat-sharing. In Delhi, voters have predominantly supported the BJP in general elections and the AAP in Assembly elections over the past decade. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Congress-AAP alliance failed to win even a single seat.

Kejriwal’s release before the Haryana election has raised concerns among Congress leaders that the AAP could encroach into their core support base besides splitting the anti-BJP and floating voters. Many accuse the AAP of playing the BJP’s game in the State where the ruling party is facing strong anti-incumbency. “Haryana is important for AAP to remain a national party. Moreover, Haryana is Kejriwal’s home State and he already has a social base here,” said Manindra Thakur, Associate Professor, Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU).

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Shortly after his release from jail, Kejriwal criticised the Narendra Modi government for prioritising simultaneous elections (One Nation, One Election), challenging it to focus instead on “One Nation, One Education”. At a public meeting, he lashed out at Prime Minister Modi, mentioning RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s name several times. He posed five questions to Bhagwat. Kejriwal questioned the RSS’ stance on the BJP’s alleged misuse of Central agencies to destabilise opposition parties, its practice of inducting previously criticised “corrupt” leaders, and the apparent disregard for the RSS shown by BJP president J.P. Nadda. He also probed the RSS’ overall satisfaction with the BJP’s current political approach. Lastly, Kejriwal highlighted the inconsistency in the BJP’s retirement age policy, questioning why the 75-year age limit applied to veterans like L.K. Advani but not to Modi.

Kejriwal was trying to cash in on the difference of opinion between the RSS’ and BJP’s top leadership, according to Ashutosh Kumar, head of the political science department at Panjab University. “AAP has always pursued the politics of soft Hindutva and Kejriwal himself has projected himself as a devout Hindu. While addressing the RSS chief, Kejriwal in a coded language, was telling him: ‘If the BJP is not listening to you anymore, I am here.’ AAP cannot be an alternative to the BJP. It remains a one-and-a-half State (Punjab and Delhi) party. In Delhi, they lost all seven seats in alliance with the Congress. So, after coming out of jail, he is just playing the victim card and attacking its principal rival in Delhi, the BJP.”

In May 2024, when Kejriwal came out on bail from Tihar Jail for a few days, he raised the issue of Modi’s retirement from politics. “Next year Prime Minister Modi is turning 75. In 2014, Modi himself had made a rule that whoever turns 75 will retire,” he had said in election rallies, eliciting a clarification from Union Home Minister and BJP leader Amit Shah on the issue of the retirement age.

Whether inside jail or outside, observers feel that the negative media campaign against Kejriwal has not made any dent in the AAP’s image. Political commentator Abhay Kumar Dubey believes that with his resignation Kejriwal has turned the tables on the BJP. “After divesting himself of all the responsibility in the Delhi government and getting into the activist mode, everything is part of his larger plan,” Dubey said, dismissing the allegations that the AAP could be RSS’ B-team. “Politics cannot be judged through the binaries of secularism and communalism alone. Kejriwal’s politics is all about realpolitik. He has several tricks up his sleeve to outmanoeuvre the BJP,” Dubey added.

The rise of Atishi

Atishi was chosen as Delhi Chief Minister over party co-founders and two-time Ministers such as Gopal Rai, Saurabh Bhardwaj, and Rakhi Birla. AAP insiders suggest that Kejriwal, an IIT graduate, prefers working with highly educated individuals, making Atishi, an educationist, a natural choice. Atishi frequently visited Kejriwal in Tihar Jail, and relayed his instructions to party leaders while overseeing 14 departments, including education, public works, and law.

Meanwhile, in Haryana, the AAP could spring a surprise, says Thakur. The AAP represents a new political force emerging in India representing the middle class, he added. “It is a party with pragmatic politics, without larger ideological commitments,” he said.

Observers believe that Kejriwal’s questions to the RSS chief could be aimed at Hindutva adherents. AAP emerged from the 2013 Anna Hazare-led India Against Corruption movement, which many believe, had RSS backing and led to the end of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance rule at the Centre. The AAP has often tried to position itself as a more favourable representative of Hindus than the BJP. In the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the party released its manifesto on Ram Navami, on April 17, promising governance based on Ram Rajya ideals. On the same day it launched a website: “AAP Ka Ram Rajya”.

Also Read | Atishi as Delhi Chief Minister: Can her credentials and close ties with Kejriwal steer AAP through turmoil?

There are several instances suggesting ideological overlaps between the AAP and the RSS. While the AAP criticised the ruling BJP for granting citizenship to people coming in from neighbouring countries under the Citizenship Amendment Act, it maintained a tactical silence on the National Register of Citizens, the Delhi riots, hate crimes against Muslims, and the Bilkis Bano case. While the AAP in Delhi has been decrying the Centre’s grip on administrative powers, it had openly supported the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status and its split into two Centrally administered Union Territories.

On the five questions that Kejriwal posed to the RSS chief, his former party colleague and now BJP leader, Kapil Mishra, told reporters: “Kejriwal should answer the people of Delhi instead: What happened to Jan Lokpal? Why is Yamuna not cleaned? Why is there pollution in the air? Why are the roads broken? Why are temporary employees not made permanent?”

According to Ajay Gudavarthy, Associate Professor at the Centre for Political Studies, JNU, while the BJP has created a “veritable governance crisis” for AAP through the Lieutenant Governor’s office in Delhi, Kejriwal faces a credibility crisis due to serious corruption charges and poor governance. “It is uncertain if his resignation will garner public sympathy,” he said. Underscoring the pragmatic and transactional nature of politics that seems to have taken root in Delhi after the Anna Hazare-led movement, Gudavarthy added, “AAP needs to clearly communicate the contrast between their previous two terms of power in Delhi and the current situation to the electorate.” For the upcoming Assembly election in Delhi, Gudavarthy predicted, “We are likely to see the BJP pushing overall pragmatic governance immediacies versus the ethical questions that Kejriwal frames.”